A recent analysis revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s initiative to revamp its coal-fired power plants may incur a cost of up to $46.4 billion over the next two decades. This amount significantly surpasses the previously leaked internal SaskPower documents estimate of $26 billion over 25 years.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to assess the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy to transition from coal-fired plants to nuclear power and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research indicates that retaining the coal plants and implementing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems would be more costly and environmentally detrimental compared to decommissioning the coal plants. This earlier approach was the province’s original plan before it was reversed in early 2025.
Dolter emphasized the potential for substantial savings, reduced emissions, and individual cost savings exceeding $800 annually by adopting a different course of action. His study utilized information from leaked SaskPower documents, data presented to the province’s rate review panel, and some assumptions due to the lack of transparency regarding the government’s internal analysis.
Incorporating carbon pricing into the calculation, Dolter highlighted that without such pricing for heavy emitters, the cost of persisting with coal usage would amount to $30.2 billion over the next two decades. However, he noted that with carbon pricing factored in, the total cost climbs to $46.4 billion but becomes significantly lower, almost halved compared to the original estimate, owing to the substantial environmental impact and associated expenses linked to coal plants.
Although Dolter underscored the financial implications of the current trajectory chosen by Saskatchewan, he refrained from speculating on the government’s rationale for selecting this path despite being aware of the projected costs.
When queried about Dolter’s findings, the provincial government responded with a statement emphasizing the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s ongoing development. The government reiterated its commitment to an energy strategy encompassing various sources, including nuclear power, to meet the province’s energy requirements.
The potential financial and legal risks associated with Saskatchewan’s departure from federal regulations aimed at phasing out coal-fired power were also discussed. Dolter warned that disregarding clean electricity regulations, coal-fired power mandates, and carbon pricing obligations could expose the province to legal challenges, potentially resulting in significant financial losses.
Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan expressed relief at the government’s decision to refurbish the coal-fired plants, citing the positive impact on the city’s economic outlook and population stability. Sernick indicated that the city’s future development plans align with the coal rebuild and potential transition to nuclear power, fostering a more consistent growth trajectory for Estevan.
The federal regulations targeting the elimination of coal-fired power plants by 2030 have been a point of contention, with the Saskatchewan government diverging from its initial commitment to comply with these rules. Minister Jeremy Harrison has staunchly defended the province’s stance, asserting the constitutionality of Saskatchewan’s energy strategy and its alignment with the province’s long-term energy goals.
Overall, the analysis sheds light on the complex economic, environmental, and legal implications of Saskatchewan’s energy policy decisions, emphasizing the necessity for a balanced approach that considers both financial viability and sustainability.