The latest surge in Manitoba’s measles outbreak has decreased, but specialists caution that the province remains significantly distant from achieving herd immunity against the virus, indicating that case numbers may rise again.
“Without improvements in vaccine coverage, this situation could repeat itself, and it’s anticipated that it will,” Dr. Davinder Singh, a medical officer of health with Manitoba’s immunization initiative, stated in a conversation on Tuesday.
After two confirmed cases of the extremely contagious illness in July, measles infections have fallen to levels not seen since March 2025.
Throughout a span of 3½ weeks in July, Manitoba Public Health reported no new infections. Singh noted that this marked the longest stretch without a new case since the winter of 2024-25.
“It is noteworthy that, despite ongoing transmission, the frequency is significantly lower than what we witnessed previously.”
The outbreak in the province peaked at 177 confirmed cases in February due to rampant transmission during the winter months.
Since that peak, the number of reported infections has consistently decreased, falling to 49 cases in May and dropping to eight in June.
“The numbers have significantly decreased, and while we may see an uptick in the fall, it is expected to be considerably lower than what we’ve faced already,” Singh mentioned.
Brandon’s Mayor, Jeff Fawcett, noted that since the outbreak’s peak, measles cases have declined to such an extent that it hasn’t been a topic of concern while the city hosts a horse show this month with hundreds in attendance.
“No one is discussing it,” Fawcett shared with CBC in an interview on Tuesday.
He remarked, “This is a major shift compared to a few months ago, when fears regarding the illness surrounded the Royal Manitoba Winter Fair following Manitoba Ag Days, an indoor agricultural show, which resulted in a rise in measles cases.
Fawcett stated, “Things have returned to how they were before the recent outbreak.”
“This is something we didn’t worry about for a generation.”
Not eliminated: microbiologist
According to Singh, many individuals who were unprotected against measles at the start of the outbreak have now contracted the virus, resulting in a significant number becoming resistant to it, thus aiding in the reduction of cases.
“Currently, we are likely at a level we would have achieved had we maintained high immunization rates.”
However, Singh added that the decline can also be attributed to increased outdoor activities during the summer months.
Dr. Philippe Lagacé-Wiens, a medical microbiologist and physician at St. Boniface Hospital, indicated that while Manitoba is seeing the end of a wave of measles infections, “this does not imply it has disappeared forever.”
The transmission of measles appears to be settling into a seasonal pattern, with increased cases during the colder months.
While the province has broadened eligibility for the measles vaccine, experts indicate that Manitoba still falls short of achieving herd immunity against the highly contagious virus. (Mary Conlon/The Associated Press)
“Seeing fewer cases is always encouraging, but it could also provide a false sense of security. We know this is a seasonal virus.”
Measles is transmitted through airborne droplets that can linger for hours after an infected individual coughs, sneezes, or speaks.
Transmission intensifies when winter conditions force individuals indoors, allowing the virus to circulate in enclosed environments, Lagacé-Wiens noted.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see another increase in 2027,” he remarked.
“As long as we lack herd immunity, we will encounter small clusters of infection that can escalate.”
Herd immunity
Lagacé-Wiens stated that at least 95 percent of the population in Manitoba must be immune to measles for the province to effectively eliminate the disease.
However, Singh from Manitoba’s immunization program indicated that the province is nowhere near that figure.
Recent statistics reveal that approximately 81 percent of children had received their first measles vaccination by age two in 2024.
Only about 72 percent of children up to the age of seven have received both doses of the vaccine.
“This leads to large groups of individuals who are vulnerable to infection,” Singh explained. “The initial outbreak was directly caused by declining immunization rates.”
Singh expressed confidence that the present outbreak will conclude, as the number of infections has resulted in a higher level of immunity.
However, if vaccination rates do not rise to achieve herd immunity, new individuals remain at risk for the virus, and it only takes one infected person to initiate a new wave of cases.
A billboard displays a public health campaign regarding measles in Manitoba in Winnipeg from May, part of the government’s efforts to curb the spread of infections after dealing with a prolonged outbreak. (Trevor Brine/CBC)
Measles cases across Canada have also decreased in recent months. However, the number of infections in the United States has surged this year, already surpassing the record set in 2025.
Lagacé-Wiens highlighted that having a measles hot spot so near to Canada poses a significant threat, as it raises the odds that someone may introduce the virus into the country.
“If there is sufficient immunity, the virus will die out, but it persists when there are large numbers of unimmunized individuals. This was evident during the extended outbreak,” he explained.
To combat measles, Manitoba has expanded vaccine eligibility to infants as young as six months in regions such as Southern Health, the Prairie Mountain Health Region, and the Interlake-Eastern Regional Health Authority.
Health officials have collaborated with educational institutions and family practitioners to disseminate accurate immunization information.
The province has conducted advertising campaigns and even organized a telephone town hall to address questions about the disease.
Singh indicated that efforts to foster trust in immunization and boost vaccination rates in Manitoba are ongoing.
“This is crucial in numerous respects,” he stated.
Treating patients with measles places strain on healthcare resources and exposes those infected to potential complications, Singh pointed out.
At least 52 individuals have been hospitalized in Manitoba due to measles during the outbreak, including six patients who required admission to the ICU.
“They could have been vaccinated, preventing nearly all of the infections,” Singh remarked.
Measles infections decreased to just two confirmed cases in Manitoba during July, marking the lowest figures recorded since March 2025. Experts caution that without herd immunity against the virus, measles cases may rise again as the cooler months approach.
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