The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and could become the most potent ever, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. During a news conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend continues, it could surpass any previous occurrences in the last four decades.
The UN weather agency’s projections indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO. A powerful El Niño can cause significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the escalating impact of El Niño, stating that the planet is facing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds, occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, triggering intense precipitation and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of El Niño towards the end of this year, with its repercussions extending into 2027 and resulting in elevated global temperatures. Saulo mentioned that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of the continued impacts.
“We are dedicated to collaborating closely with UN partners and the humanitarian system to provide essential climate information to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” Saulo affirmed.