Christmas dinner prices are expected to remain stable this year, defying the recent surge in food costs, according to experts. The average cost for a festive meal for four, including a turkey and traditional accompaniments, is projected to be around £32.46, slightly lower than last year’s £32.57. This price stability is notable given the 4.7% grocery price inflation recorded last month.
Retailers are intensifying their promotions to attract Christmas shoppers, recognizing the significance of competitive pricing on essential holiday food items. Market research conducted by Worldpanel by Numerator reveals that the price of frozen turkeys has decreased by 3.6% to £13.52 compared to the previous year. Additionally, parsnips are priced 0.4% lower at 71p for a pack of four.
However, some items have experienced price increases, with cauliflower rising by 4.2% to £1.22, carrots up by 5.5% to 52p, and Brussels sprouts up by 3.6% to 92p. Potatoes show a 1.1% increase to £1.67, while gravy granules are now 5.1% more expensive at £2.23. Other items such as stuffing mix and cranberry sauce have also seen price hikes. Despite these fluctuations, discount supermarket Aldi is offering a main Christmas meal for eight at less than £12, translating to under £1.50 per person.
Worldpanel by Numerator reports that over 31% of supermarket purchases last month were made on promotion, indicating a slight increase from the previous year. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, highlights that retailers are striving to cater to budget-conscious consumers during the festive season, with many households facing financial challenges. The trend of allocating a portion of spending to small indulgences persists, with premium own-label products gaining popularity.
Although chocolate prices have risen by 18.4% compared to the previous year, consumer demand for confectionery advent calendars and sparkling wine remains strong. Online grocer Ocado has achieved a record market share of 2.2%, with sales up by 15.8% in the last three months. Despite this growth, physical stores continue to dominate the grocery sector, with the days leading up to Christmas expected to be peak shopping periods.
In terms of market share gains, Lidl has seen the most significant increase, adding 0.5 percentage points to reach 8.1%. Aldi’s sales have also risen by 4.1%, maintaining a market share of 10.5%. Tesco maintains its position as the leading retailer, with sales growing by 4.7% to nearly £10.2 billion, resulting in a market share of 28.3%.