Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, although not in a direct military confrontation. This mindset allows the Kremlin to allocate resources to carry out probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying weaknesses and boundaries. Acting covertly in Europe, Russia has engaged in acts of sabotage such as targeting Polish railway lines, disrupting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching an aggressive campaign to disrupt NATO supply chains. The goal is to increase the cost for NATO in supporting Ukraine, disrupt supply chains, and sow discord in Western nations.
While Russia’s actions have not crossed a threshold prompting a military response from NATO, the use of third-party proxies complicates attribution. The sabotage attacks across Europe lack coordination and intensity consistent with the level of support each country provides to Ukraine. Notably, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which offer significant military aid to Ukraine, have experienced more physical attacks compared to the UK, which despite substantial aid contributions, has faced fewer assaults.
Russia maintains a keen interest in the UK, investing resources in surveillance activities, including recent incidents like the Yantar surveillance vessel’s presence in British waters. Disruptions to Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe in 2022, due to expulsions of diplomats linked to the GRU, have forced Russia to rely on local proxies, diminishing the effectiveness and coordination of its operations. However, Russia is likely to adapt and enhance its strategies, posing a risk to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.