A recent peer-reviewed study highlights an overlooked risk to cocoa production amidst the buzz of Halloween chocolate displays in stores nationwide. While heat and drought have been the primary climate concerns, the study led by Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University reveals that heavy rainfall poses a significant threat to cocoa cultivation.
The impact of this weather risk is evident in the soaring cocoa prices experienced in recent years, with a tonne of cocoa now priced around $6,000 US compared to the previous range of $2,000 to $3,000 US since 2014. In 2024, prices surged to over $12,000 US, driven by various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, the largest cocoa-growing region globally, with over two million farmers contributing to production.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced due to excessive rainfall hindering crop management and harvesting efforts. Climate change, attributed to human activities like burning fossil fuels, is expected to intensify extreme rainfall events, impacting cocoa production, a crop enjoyed by billions worldwide.
The study, focusing on Ghana as the second-largest cocoa producer globally, emphasizes the detrimental effects of extreme rainfall on cocoa yields. Excessive rain during flowering can damage delicate cocoa tree flowers and young pods, leading to lower productivity. Additionally, wet conditions contribute to fungal infections like black pod disease, affecting yields in countries such as Ecuador and Indonesia as well.
Further, the research underscores a clear climate signal indicating that warmer air holds more moisture, resulting in intensified rain events during the wet season over recent decades. While El Niño typically reduces extreme rainfall risks in West Africa, it raises concerns of drought, exacerbating challenges for cocoa farmers in the region.
Apart from climatic risks, the study also highlights other threats to cocoa production, such as aging trees and illegal gold mining, as outlined by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Proposals to mitigate the impact of extreme rainfall on cocoa cultivation include interventions like fungicide application and improved drainage systems.
Experts warn that climate shocks are discouraging cocoa farming in West Africa, making it less appealing and more arduous for smallholder farmers. The changing climate could potentially force farmers out of the industry, leading to price volatility and encouraging chocolate producers to explore cocoa-free alternatives like ChoViva, a sunflower seed-based chocolate. This shift towards more resilient supply chains aims to address the vulnerabilities associated with traditional cocoa production.